Polls

I wonder how accurate polls are becoming. Can Kerry really go from 2 points behind in New Mexico to 10 points ahead in a week? Is Bush really only up by 3 points in North Carolina and only 2 points in Tennessee?

There has been talk about polling inaccuracy because of a sharp rise in the number of people who exclusively use cellular phones and are, therefore, unable to be polled. Furthermore, all major pollsters admit to being unable to adjust for the unprecedented number of voter registrations. Conventional wisdom is that newly registered voters are not particularly likely to show up at the polls. As a result, these people are not considered "likely voters" by pollsters such as Gallup, Pew, Harris, etc. But isn't there a difference between someone registering to vote at the DMV when they get their license or at a supermarket (as is the case in some places) and someone who makes an effort to register because they feel this is the most important election in their lives?

How can a poll take that variable into account?

Another thing, pollsters make certain assumptions based on past voting habits. For instance, most polls factor Ralph Nader in with the same numbers he achieved in 2000. That strikes me as just silly. Are 100,000 Naderites in Florida going to comfortably cast their lot with him knowing what happened last time? I'm sure there are some hardcore greens out there, but I can't imagine a large number of them entering the booth intent on making a point -especially given Bush's environmental record (Healthy Forests initiative, Kyoto Accord, anyone?).

Will stem cells really make a difference? Will desperate people with family members suffering from degenerative and incurable ailments abandon hope, cling to it, or find another issue to hang their hat on?

What about enthusiam? Who do people dislike enough to actually get out and vote against? Sadly, that's what it seems to come down to. It is rare to find someone who enthusiastically backs one of the candidates...not so rare to find someone who abhors one of the candidates.

All said and done, Kerry is doing much better than expected, especially given his poor showing in August. The debates seemed to have helped. Of the 16 battleground states, he is currently ahead in 9 with leads outside the margin of error in 6. Bush has moved ahead in 6 but remains within the margin of error.

According to pollster, John Zogby, Kerry has a very good chance at winning this one if under-30's get out and vote. Given unprecedented registration and a sense of urgency (and the D-word creeping into the 11th hour discourse), that could happen.

Still, I think when it comes down to it, Bush has human nature and history on his side.

Election night should be interesting.